World Cup Group D

Group D is next on the agenda for us to take a look at in this series previewing the world cup. This is part of a series looking at all the groups in the World Cup so please takes a look at the others and let me know your thoughts. Group D contains Argentina, Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria. So let’s take a look at the age make up of the 4 squads

adged

Argentina has one of the oldest medians we have seen so far and it looks to be about 30. Does this mean its this squad last opportunity to win the world cup? Lionel Messi will no be around forever and this is probably his last chance. Both Croatia and Iceland have similar medians which are around the area we have seen most medians so far in this preview series. Nigeria has a relatively young median age however interestingly they have more players over 30 then Croatia and Iceland.

capsd

There seems to be a big correlation between Nigeria’s relatively young squad and it seems to have the lowest amount of caps. Croatia seems to have a relatively experienced squad with most players having more then 25 caps this should stand them in good stead in the tournament if the experience is a key attribute to any good squad. Argentina caps seem to be evenly distributed across all of the range, they also seem to have the most amount of players above 100 caps.

compd

Next, we review squad composition for the 4 teams in group D. All teams in this group seem to have varying amounts of all different departments in a team. Whats surprising is Argentina seem to have the least amount of attackers however the attackers they do have are all world class and it’s going to be difficult to fit them all in the team. Croatia seems to have the most amount of defenders which could mean they are strong defensively. Iceland and Nigeria have a similar makeup in their squads with only a slight difference in attackers and defenders.

chanced

Finally, we look at the chances of each team in the tournament based on looking at chance from implied odds. As you can see this group is expected to be pretty easy for Croatia and Argentina. Iceland and Nigeria look expected to be quite evenly matched teams but are not expected to have any impact on the group. Looking at the chances to win the competition Argentina are one of the big favourites unsurprisingly. However, it also looks like Croatia are seen as having a good outside chance so will be interesting to see how they do in the competition.

That’s it for today’s group D overview please let me know your thoughts in the comments below and check out the other previews.

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World Cup Group C

Hi there welcome to next in series of little previews ahead of the FIFA World Cup. Today we are dissecting the 4 teams in group C; France, Peru, Denmark and Australia. Please do check out the other previews and further previews are upcoming at 6 pm everyday ahead of the first game.

agec

On the face of it, these look to be some of the youngest squads in the tournament. Australia seems to have players from both ends of the spectrum and a good grouping around peak age players. France has probably the lowest median age across all squads in the competition. Peru doesn’t have too many players between 20-25, however, have a good grouping between 25-28.

capsc

Looking at the distribution of caps in each squad it looks like all four teams have relatively inexperienced players. Denmark has the most amount of players which have around 25 caps. They also have the familiar trend of having a spike higher up showing a good amount of experienced pros vital in any squad make up. Peru seems to have the most amount of players with experience in their squad which could stand them in good stead to get out the group. The big question for France is will their lack of experience affect them later in the competition.

compc

Finally looking at squad composition France and Australia seem to have the most amount of attackers. France has done this by bringing fewer midfielders Australia by bringing fewer Defenders. Peru seems to have gone a totally different direction to the rest of the team with a squad overloaded with midfielders. Most are attacking midfielders so they should still have goalscoring options.

probc

Now we look at each teams probability of getting out the group and winning the tournament. Finally, we have a group that on the face of it could be quite competitive for second place at least. Denmark is a clear favourite but both Peru and Australia seem to have good outside chances at least according to the bookies. France has a decent chance of winning the whole tournament and is currently 4th favourites, so it will be interesting to see how they do with their young squad.

That’s it for today’s overview let me know your thoughts how far do you think France will go and who you think will get out the group?

World Cup Group B

Today we are going to look at group B in the World Cup. This is part of my series reviewing each squad in the World Cup in order to asses strengths and weaknesses and understand squad make up. If you haven’t seen the other Blogs go check them out group A went live yesterday and the other groups will follow over the coming days. Group B consists of Spain, Portugal, Iran and Morocco.

ageb

The first thing to look at is the age composition of the 4 squads. Interestingly Iran seem to generally have the youngest squad in the group with the lowest median. Also Spain seem to have the largest grouping around peak age between 27-30. Morocco despite having the highest median have the lowest age players in the group. Portugal have some young players but also have some of the generally older players with a lot of squad members above 30.

capsb

Looking at the experience of the players Morocco looks clearly the least experienced squad. This could be because of the high amount of lower age players compared to the other teams. Spain and Portugal have similar caps profiles with a group of inexperienced players but also complimented by a few experienced players.

compostionb

The main thing that’s interesting with the squad composition of the 4 teams is that Portugal and Spain have the same composition. Is this a template the the bigger countries seem to be following? Also there is an increase in attacking players in these 4 squads compared to Group A which should mean these are all better balanced. In fact Morocco, Portugal and Spain have the same amount of attackers. With Iran having more Midfielders then any other team could this give them more options however lack of attackers could harm them if chasing a game.

chanceb

Finally we look at the chances of team qualifying from the group and the chance of winning the World Cup. Qualification for the group looks like a pretty much over and done deal. Portugal and Spain look to have by far the strongest chances of qualifying from the group. This could make this group not too interesting for spectators. Portugal and Spain do play each other in the first game which if there is a loser could add extra pressure when they come to play Morocco or Iran. I’m surprised the low chance compared to Spain of Portugal winning the title. Portugal are the reigning European champions and have mercurial talent Cristiano Ronaldo. Spain however look to be one of the big favourites so it will be interesting to see how they do after last World Cups total failure.

Thats it for group B overview any questions or comments let me know or if you have any ideas of other things i should look at let me know.

World Cup Group A

Hello welcome to the first of my blogs looking at each group in the world cup. Over the next 8 blogs I hope to dissect each country’s squad and finally look at their chances of progressing and winning the cup. So today we start with group A which contains hosts Russia, Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

groupaage

The first thing to look at is the age range of each squad in group A. All 4 teams have a median around the same area. As you can see Egypt have a 45 year old player, one of their GK’s who is the oldest player in any squad in the tournament. Uruguay and Egypt tend to have some younger players than Russia and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia look to have generally one of the older squads in the tournament.

caps

Next we look at the caps all the players in the squad have received. It’s clear Russia has the most players with the least amount of international experience. Will they struggle to cope with pressure from playing in front of home crowd. Saudi Arabia despite having the older squad of the 4 teams seems to have generally the least experienced team. Uruguay however seem to have a good balance with experience at all different levels.

asquadcomp

Looking at each teams squad composition clearly all have the same percent GK as 3 GK is stipulated in the rules. One thing that’s clear is Egypt, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a low amount of strikers within there squads. All three have just 3 recognised strikers will this leave all them struggling to score goals. Also Egypt seem to have the lowest amount of midfielders compared to the rest of the group with an increase in defenders. This will give egypt lots of options in defence in case of injuries however could leave them exposed if they need to make changes from the bench to try and win games.

chance  Finally we use the implied probability from the betting odds to look at the chance of each team getting out the group and winning the tournament. Overall group A seems to have no teams really capable of mounting a serious challenge for the world cup. With Russia with home advantage rated lower then Uruguay. Also it doesn’t seem to be a particularly close group for qualification the clear favourites are Uruguay and Russia. The wild card in this is Egypt if Mo Salah is fit for the tournament then expect there chances compared to Russia to increase considerably. If he isn’t expect this could be a pretty straight forward group.

Thats it for today’s look at group A please let me know your thoughts do you think any teams in this group can go far? let me know your thoughts in the comments. Group B will follow tomorrow.

Middlesbrough Performance Review

Hello welcome to the next blog on this blog. If this is our first time here then please have a read of all the other blogs on here and let me know your thoughts anything I havent spotted or things you want looked at. Today we are going to look at the performances of the Middlesbrough first team throughout the season.

The data used for this I have used the rating each player gets on whoscored.com. Overall it was a season to forget for Middlesbrough. Ahead of the season the chairman had promised they would smash the league and £40 million spent in the transfer market seemed to suggest that could be possible. However they ended up 25 points behind winners Wolves and easily got knocked out by Aston Villa in the play off semi final. The idea here is to look at performances over the full season look at if you can see if the change of managers had an effect, did performances improve? Also which areas of the team generally performed well which areas didn’t which might provide insight where the team could be improved in the transfer market.

season perf

Above you can see box plots for each league game of the season including the play offs. Generally the team played better in the wins then defeats. Hows that for an earth shattering conclusion! What is interesting is the team had two managers during the season and it does look like under Tony Pulis the performances were more consistent, Lets look at this in more detail…..

density plot

Now lets look at performances under both managers. The density plot above shows there really wasn’t much difference. The players generally performed at the same level under both managers however Pulis seemed to be able to get more when it comes to ratings above 8.

players

25 different players started a game for the team this season with one player the clear outstanding performer. Adama Traore. However Traore also has the largest spread of performances showing he can be an inconsistent performer. Also it seems generally attacking players are more consistent performers. What will be disappointing is Ben Gibson seems to be overall the worst performing defender in the team. In midfield It looks pretty close between Adam Clayton and Jonny Howson for the best median perofrmances however clayton looks to be much more consistent.

Overall its interesting to review the the players performances over the season. It could be interesting to further stretch this to look at other teams or look at previous seasons for specific players. Also it could be further drilled down into home and away performances. Let me know your thoughts or if you have any questions really would like to hear from you.

#TidyTuesday 1 – The best City for a Starbucks Crawl!

Hello welcome to this blog looking at what i have learned from looking at this weeks tidy Tuesday data set. If you need some background behind tidy Tuesday its a community initiative from the R4DS online learning community. If you want to get involved please look it up on twitter and join in. This week it was looking at a data set with shop location for three coffee chains: Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts and Tim Hortons. I decided to focus on Starbucks as that was more world wide rather then USA/ Canada centric.

carbon (1) Above you can see all the code I wrote for this analysis. I did add another small data set I created with cities population and size in km2.

starbucks by country

The first part I looked at was number of Starbucks by country. As you can see Starbucks have by far the most stores in the US. This isnt too suprising since the chan started in that country and its a big country. What is surprising is out of the top 5 3 of the countries are in Asia. Great Britain leads with the most amount of Coffee shops in Europe.

distributionstar

For the top twenty countries by number of Starbucks I also looked how the ownership type broke down. What surprised me was the low amount lof franchise ownership (only seen in France and UK). Also joint ownership seems to be employed in East Asia.

cafes by city

Next I looked at cities and ffound the top twenty cities with starbucks shops in. Note these are excluding the Chinese and Korean cities as they came up in symbols in the dataset and i couldnt work out which city they were. New York holds the record for the most Starbucks followed by London. I did question after this how size and population of each city effects it.

shops per kmpop

Finally we look at the density of Starbucks and the number per population in a city. If you don’t want to walk yourself far between coffees go to Vancouver. It averages over 1.25 shops per km squared. They also will not be too busy either with the second lowest population per cafe.  If you want to do a Starbucks crawl go to Vancouver! Also Vancouver looks to be the outlier when it comes to coffee shops per km squared with most cities less then 0.5 cafes per km squared. Is this something Starbucks aim for so the market isn’t saturated? If you have any comments thoughts please let me know would love to hear your views on this.

Home Secretary the Poison Chalice?

Hello welcome to today’s blog. We are going to be looking to see if Home Secretary is the poison chalice job it is made out to be in the media. Recently Amber Rudd was forced to resign from the job due to being found to have lied to parliament. Many political commentators following it commented it being the hardest job in government and the apparent high turnover in occupants. I thought rather then take there word for it it could be tested with readily available data. I created my own data set from the last 100 years or so with the number of incumbents to the 4 great offices of state. Looking at the number of days they served in the role. I didn’t include anyone who died in the job as that’s nothing to do with difficulty of the job.

home sec

The first thing to look at is the number of holders of the 4 great offices of state since 1916. Clearly the “safest” job looks to be Prime Minister. This I think is because clearly the Prime Minister is responsible for hiring and firing the other three jobs and possibly Prime Ministers will often push incumbents out of those jobs in order to protect themselves. Also when we get back to the main question we were asking at the start of this blog then Home Secretary has had the most incumbents in the last 100 years suggesting there is a higher turnover then other jobs. However Chancellor and Foreign Secretary are no too far behind.

distribution

The plot above showing the distribution of days in office with the mean plotted as a black dot. Clearly the Prime Minister has the highest mean number of days in office but as you can see from the general spread its broadly similar to the other three jobs however it has been dragged up by the two outliers (Thatcher and Blair). The other three jobs have very similar means however home secretary does have the lowest. The general distribution though is similar to Foreign Secretary and Chancellor. Therefore it could be small sample size that is effecting the result. Looking at this i definitely don’t think its as clear the press make out.

trend

Finally we look at the general trend over the last 100 years for each of the 4 great offices of state. Overall you can see that generally Prime Minister and Chancellor times in office are increasing. Possibly because in the last 20 years there have been two Prime Ministers that have aligned themselves closely with their chancellors. Foreign and home secretaries however have not changed and there tenures have stayed around the same levels over the last 100 years.

In conclusion I don’t think its clear that home Secretary is the worst job in government however it does seem they spend generally shorter in position then other 3 great offices of state. What’s surprising is Foreign Secretary is pretty similar to Home Secretary when its a lot small area to cover and a lot less that can go wrong. Maybe its easy to move the Foreign Secretary around in a re shuffle. Thanks for reading this blog if you enjoyed and want to see more please let me know and give the blog a follow so you can see when I post a new blog.