Hello and welcome to the second of my previews of this years IPL. If you didnt catch my first one on the Chennai super kings please go check it out let me know what you think. Today’s preview is focusing on the Delhi Daredevils. The Delhi daredevils were one of the founding members of the IPL however they have been less then successful. They have never won the competition and in the last 5 editions of the competition have never got any further than the league stage.
Delhi have the second largest roster in the competition which is one of the youngest squads and consequently one of the least experienced. Their captain Gautam Ghambir is their most experienced player and they only have 3 players with over 100 IPL games experience.
The treemap above shows which areas of the squad the most money was spent on. Overall it looks quite balanced spending across the whole of the squad. The most money has been spent on All rounders with strong twenty 20 all rounders like Glenn Maxwell and Chris Morris. There seem also to be a good strong spin options within the team so look out for Delhi to be strong one turning pitches.
Above is the summary of the batsmen and wicket keepers record in twenty 20. On the face of it they look a little underwhelming with the squad seeming to lack one gun twenty 20 batsmen. Overall they seem to have a few batsmen with decent twenty strike rates but seem to lacking in the ability to score big runs. This could mean this team could struggle to reverse their misfortunes in this competition.
The all rounders is were the picture is slightly rosier. Delhi seem to have a good selection of all rounders who are both strong with the bat and ball with also good economy rates. This looks to be the strongest area of the team and with weak batting is an area of the team which must fire if they are going to be successful
The bowling attack looks to be the weakest area of the team. With most of the bowlers in the low threat high runs box the worst box on the graph. With only one bowler who looks to be able to take wickets and keep the score in check. This is only going to further put pressure on the all rounders in the team.
Overall Delhi despite having an obvious good selection of all rounders the squad seems lacking in a few critical areas therefore I don’t think this will be the year Delhi wins the trophy.
Welcome to the first of my preview posts for this years IPL. In these posts I intend to review each squad of the 8 teams one by one in order to attempt to dissect each teams strength and weaknesses and finally decide which are the better squads. The first squad is going to be Chennai Super Kings. The kings are returning back to the IPL after 2 seasons which they were banned. Chennai have won the IPL twice in 2010 and 11 and have their talisman captain MS Dhoni back for this season.
The initial squad view is above. The big thing that stands out for Chennai is they have by far the most experienced squad in the IPL and the oldest squad. This will be interesting way to view their performances does age and experience help in the IPL.
Below you can see an overview of how the Chennai squad is made up with less batsmenn and all rounders then the league average but more Fast and Spin bowlers. This could be at strategy to ensure the team takes enough wickets in order to win matches. Knowing you have one of the best twenty20 batsmen in MS Dhoni means you can afford to carry less batsmen.
Now you can see the breakdown of the squad by type of player based on their value in the IPL auction. The main thing that stands out is that despite lower numbers batsmen and all rounders most of the budget has been spent on batsmen, all rounders and a wicket keeper. Will this mean that despite there high numbers will the bowling attack be the week link for Chennai?
Above is a summary of the Chennai Super King batsmen with the twenty 20 average plotted against the strike rate. The Chennai batsmen and wicket keepers seem to be well balanced.
The plot above shows all the all rounders in the IPL 2018 with the all rounds on the Chennai roster in blue. The size of the dots represent the rank of the economy rate for all the players. The smaller the dot the lower the economy rate rank. As you can see three of the all rounders in the squad are pretty average there not particularly batting or bowling all rounders. The key player in this department is undoubtedly Shane Watson who in twenty 20 games looks to be skilful with the bat and ball.
Finally you can see a look at the bowlers plotting there twenty 20 economy rate against
their twenty 20 bowling average. Whats impressive about this is the high amount of bowlers in the bottom left part of the graph despite what on the face of it looks like a low amount of money spent. This should mean that the Chennai attack is able to both take wickets and restrict opposition teams.
Middlesbrough started the season as the undisputed favourites to win the Sky bet Championship and gain promotion back to the Premier League. This came from the chairman’s publicly stated ambition to “smash the league” and a total transfer spend of over £40 million (although net transfer spend was only around £15 million). There was high hopes across Teesside that the newly put together team would be able to do just that. However things haven’t turned out anything like that for the Teessiders. In the wake of Saturday nights chastening defeat to Bristol City the team are now 14 points behind Cardiff City and the second automatic promotion place.
I want to try and cut through the opinion and look at one graph which probably wont give a definitive answer on the question above however will inform some views on how Steve Gibson should be thinking.
The graph above plots the points per game. For reference I have added the points per game on average required to avoid relegation, reach the playoff and achieve automatic promotion. On that I have plotted the actual points per game and the expected points per game, which is the critical piece of information. The expected points if derived from expected goals for each match and I have included it as that value will give an understanding of the luck. If a team was outperforming expected points then they could be termed as lucky and vice versa. Reviewing the trend for Middlesbrough this has unfortunately not being the case. Their actual points is within 2 points of the expected points therefore i think they are exactly were there performances deserve to be. This is bad news for Gary Monk as this performance is far below what i expect the minimum expectation was for the season, automatic promotion. I wouldn’t say this definitely means he should sacked however this is not good statistics. I will do further posts over the week to dissect if there are any clear reasons why.
In this post I wanted to have a look at how much goalkeepers are used in football. There’s a lot of talk about how goalkeepers are used in modern football particularly due to Pep Guardiola wanting a goalkeeper that can help play out the back. In order to do this i looked at the Championship in England. Mainly because my team is in that league.
I took each teams total touches per match and the number of goalkeeper touches. I then calculated the percentage of touches for the goal keeper. The results for the Championship are in the table. What is immediately apparent to me that goalkeeper usage is probably not just tactical way of playing but also influenced by how good the team as a whole is. Teams not comfortable on the ball are more likely to use the goalkeeper to knock the ball long. Wolves have signed players all comfortable on the ball which has meant the goalkeeper has been used less. Also goalkeeper usage is influenced by the number of goal kicks. this could be removed from future analysis as this could effect the results that are seen.
The graph below shows how the number of points a team accumulated over the first 11 games is related to the % of touches the goal keeper had. There seems to be a fairly weak correlation with the number of points a team has however it will be interesting to see how this develops as the season goes on.
I am going to further review other positions touches for the teams in the championship. Possibly look at centre backs and where they touch it and full backs.
In order to further review the performances of the bowlers in the 2017 IPL i have came up with a metric that takes various information such as number of wickets, strike rate, noumber of boundries conceded, dot balls. All things that are crucial to reviewing a bowler perfromance in the IPL.
The graph shows the top 43 bowlers in the 2017 IPL and there performance rating based on the factors already mentioned. Pawan Negi based on this metric was the best performing bowler which is surprising as 10 players took more wickets then him. However he was economical and bowled significantly less balls then the bowlers who took more wickets then him. This is why a metric like this is helpful as it helps you look past the wickets taken. At the other end of the scale is James Falkner who seems to have performed significantly worse then the next bowler. This seems to be down to low amount of wickets taken and high economy rate. Now this could be because of when he was bowling for instance if hes bowling in the powerplay for most of his overs.
The plot above is the same plot however i have coloured the plot in order to show which team the bowler belongs too. There seems to be no big trend however the winners of the competition Mumbai have the most bowlers in the top 15 with 4.
The graph above i have now coloured the columns by the type of bowler. Nothing particularly stands out here. Overall this is a first attempt at reviewing the performance ratios. What would further develop this is maybe a look at this against there value in the auction. I think this can also be developed game by game and for batsmen as well.
The IPL finished at the end of May with the Mumbai Indians winning the title on the last ball of the match against the now defunct Rising Pune Super Giant. I decided to take a new look at evaluating bowling performances. Currently bowlers in all cricket are judged based on the amount of wickets they have taken, their economy rate or their bowling average. I think there could be a new way of reviewing performances. If you take the batsmen average as an indication of how good the batsmen is the batsmen with higher averages must be harder wickets to take. Therefore if you record the average of the batsmen the bowler took the wicket of you can make a judgement of the quality of the bowling. Has the bowler took a lot of wickets but where they all lower order less quality batsmen or are they good at taking the top order wickets.
I have used this approach to review the bowling performances in the 2017 IPL. To qualify for this review the bowler had to have taken more then 5 wickets which left me with 44 bowlers. The first graph below shows the amount of wickets taken by bowler against the number of balls they bowled:
Stand out performances from that graph are clearly Unadkat and Bhuvneshwar Kumar taking lots more wickets then anyone else who bowled a similar amount of balls. Sunil Narine looks to have had a significantly lower return of wickets then he should have done with the amount of balls bowled. Now if we look at the quality of the batsmen the bowlers got out shown in the graph below:
As you can see our second ranked bowler based on wickets taken has one of the lowest average batting quality rating (have to come up with a better name!) at 18.45, suggesting that he often got his wickets from lower order batsmen. Kumar got his wickets at an Batsmen average of 22.33 which is a respectable value slightly lower then the average for all bowlers. The two highest bowlers where Chawler and Nadeem both only took 6 wickets but didn’t bowl many balls (only 120 and 107 respectively). Would be interesting to know why they played only 6 games as they both looked to have troubled a lot of higher ranking batsmen.
That’s it for this first look as a way to review bowling performances. I think this can be explored a lot more and will definitely look to do that. The weakness of the method is the amount of games a batsmen has played as one that has played few will possibly have an unrepresentative average.